Risk also: VaR

Value at risk

A statistical measure of the maximum expected loss over a given time horizon at a specified confidence level — for example, 95% probability of not losing more than 2% in one day.

How it is used in EA evaluation

VaR is less commonly reported in retail EA catalogues than max drawdown, but it is a more statistically rigorous measure of tail risk. A 1-day 95% VaR of -2% means there is a 5% probability of losing more than 2% on any given trading day.

Limitation for fat-tailed markets

Standard VaR models assume normal distribution of returns. FX markets have fat tails — extreme events are more common than the model predicts. The 2015 CHF flash crash would have been labelled “impossible” by any reasonable VaR model.

For EAs, max drawdown (observed) is typically more actionable than VaR (modelled).

Related terms

See also