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MT5DEPOT ORIGINAL

Kestrel Hover

A single-position USD/JPY trend follower built on one Ichimoku signal — the Tenkan/Kijun cross.

One closed-bar cross of Tenkan above Kijun. One buy. A 300-pip target against a 100-pip stop, and nothing touches the position after that.

Total return
+48.1%
Profit factor
1.32
Max equity drawdown
8.1%
Max positions
1
USD/JPYM15TrendOne Position At A TimeLong OnlyNo MartingaleFixed 3:1 Target

Verified Performance Record

The complete record — the published backtest and everything since.

  • v1.0
  • Settings Locked
  • Updated Daily
  • Out-of-Sample
Tracking Active
Backtest (2019–Apr 1, 2026) Forward tracking (Apr 1, 2026–)
80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Strategy listed & locked Apr 1, 2026 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Aug 19, 2026 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Strategy listed & locked Apr 1, 2026 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Aug 19, 2026

Normalized growth, rebased to 100% at the start of the backtest. Everything after Apr 1, 2026 is out-of-sample.

-2% -1% 0% +1% Apr 1, 2026 Sep 1, 2026 -2% -1% 0% +1% Apr 1, 2026 Sep 1, 2026

Performance since the strategy lock date, rebased to 0% on Apr 1, 2026.

Full Record

Published backtest plus everything measured since the lock — one continuous record.

Total Return
+48.1%
Max Balance Drawdown
7.1%
Closed Trades
295
Profit Factor
1.32

Jan 1, 2019 – Sep 1, 2026

Since Strategy Lock

Only the days after the strategy was locked. Never merged into the figures on the left.

Forward Return
+0.3%
Forward Balance Drawdown
1.8%
Forward Trades
11
Tracking Period
153 days

Apr 1, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026

Trade History

All 295 closed positions in the record, newest first. Every position is 0.1 lots.

91 Wins204 Losses

Average win
+$218.69
Average loss
-$73.96
Best trade
+$316.91
Worst trade
-$148.89
ClosedSideSymbolEntryExitDurationP/L
Aug 19, 2026 12:37BuyUSD/JPY159.669158.6691d-$63.02
Aug 18, 2026 06:36BuyUSD/JPY156.778159.77815d+$187.76
Jul 31, 2026 17:35BuyUSD/JPY159.504158.50221h-$63.22
Jul 30, 2026 13:55BuyUSD/JPY161.061160.05928d-$62.60
Jul 2, 2026 12:34BuyUSD/JPY161.768160.7667d-$62.33
Jun 25, 2026 11:51BuyUSD/JPY158.945161.94638d+$185.31
May 18, 2026 00:54BuyUSD/JPY155.938158.93812d+$188.75
May 6, 2026 04:45BuyUSD/JPY156.840155.8402d-$64.17
May 4, 2026 03:54BuyUSD/JPY156.715155.7093d-$64.61
May 1, 2026 06:51BuyUSD/JPY156.530155.53013h-$64.30
Apr 30, 2026 11:02BuyUSD/JPY157.971156.94141d-$65.63
Mar 19, 2026 13:54BuyUSD/JPY159.157158.1537d-$63.48
Mar 11, 2026 22:33BuyUSD/JPY155.979158.98015d+$188.76
Feb 24, 2026 08:22BuyUSD/JPY153.228156.23313d+$192.34
Feb 11, 2026 04:52BuyUSD/JPY154.311153.3118h-$65.23
Feb 10, 2026 14:20BuyUSD/JPY155.522154.5217d-$64.78
Feb 2, 2026 15:18BuyUSD/JPY152.640155.6406d+$192.75
Jan 27, 2026 13:47BuyUSD/JPY154.012153.0021d-$66.01
Jan 23, 2026 17:13BuyUSD/JPY158.121157.07412d-$66.66
Jan 12, 2026 00:04BuyUSD/JPY155.201158.20355d+$189.75
Nov 18, 2025 00:05BuyUSD/JPY152.345155.34520d+$193.11
Oct 28, 2025 05:25BuyUSD/JPY152.771151.7694d-$66.02
Oct 24, 2025 05:01BuyUSD/JPY149.934152.9357d+$196.22
Oct 17, 2025 03:41BuyUSD/JPY150.969149.96823h-$66.75
Oct 15, 2025 01:15BuyUSD/JPY152.384151.3831d-$66.12
Oct 10, 2025 15:25BuyUSD/JPY152.647151.6466h-$66.01
Oct 9, 2025 07:41BuyUSD/JPY150.207153.2093d+$195.94
Oct 6, 2025 05:30BuyUSD/JPY147.375150.38018d+$199.82
Sep 17, 2025 18:09BuyUSD/JPY146.548145.54734d-$68.78
Aug 14, 2025 01:00BuyUSD/JPY147.612146.6128d-$68.21
Aug 4, 2025 23:09BuyUSD/JPY147.811146.81022h-$68.18
Aug 1, 2025 13:10BuyUSD/JPY149.282148.2801d-$67.57
Jul 30, 2025 18:50BuyUSD/JPY146.285149.28521d+$200.95
Jul 8, 2025 11:46BuyUSD/JPY143.604146.6046d+$204.63
Jul 1, 2025 07:49BuyUSD/JPY144.205143.2045d-$69.90
Jun 26, 2025 08:05BuyUSD/JPY144.899143.8991d-$69.49
Jun 20, 2025 14:47BuyUSD/JPY142.912145.91318d+$205.67
Jun 2, 2025 06:33BuyUSD/JPY144.169143.1693d-$69.85
May 29, 2025 10:28BuyUSD/JPY145.942144.9414h-$69.06
May 28, 2025 23:37BuyUSD/JPY142.739145.7413d+$205.98
May 23, 2025 11:44BuyUSD/JPY143.714142.7122d-$70.21
May 21, 2025 05:41BuyUSD/JPY144.600143.60019h-$69.64
May 20, 2025 05:45BuyUSD/JPY145.375144.3684d-$69.75
May 16, 2025 00:04BuyUSD/JPY146.316145.3131d-$69.02
May 14, 2025 08:06BuyUSD/JPY147.493146.4838h-$68.95
May 13, 2025 16:40BuyUSD/JPY148.518147.51724h-$67.86
May 12, 2025 08:14BuyUSD/JPY145.066148.0703d+$202.87
May 9, 2025 11:26BuyUSD/JPY146.062145.06111h-$69.01
May 8, 2025 16:22BuyUSD/JPY142.736145.7382d+$205.98
May 2, 2025 08:50BuyUSD/JPY145.860144.8588h-$69.17
May 1, 2025 14:33BuyUSD/JPY142.225145.2263d+$206.64
Apr 28, 2025 14:37BuyUSD/JPY143.771142.7683d-$70.25
Apr 25, 2025 06:13BuyUSD/JPY140.841143.8424d+$208.62
Apr 21, 2025 00:00BuyUSD/JPY142.468141.4683d-$70.69
Apr 16, 2025 19:05BuyUSD/JPY142.890141.8895d-$70.55
Apr 11, 2025 07:32BuyUSD/JPY143.914142.9101h-$70.25
Apr 10, 2025 22:21BuyUSD/JPY145.014144.0103h-$69.72
Apr 9, 2025 18:06BuyUSD/JPY144.857147.8723h+$203.89
Apr 9, 2025 12:12BuyUSD/JPY145.417144.4173h-$69.24
Apr 9, 2025 00:38BuyUSD/JPY146.201145.2012d-$68.87
Apr 7, 2025 06:31BuyUSD/JPY146.498145.4984h-$68.73
Apr 6, 2025 23:10BuyUSD/JPY145.925144.9202d-$69.35
Apr 4, 2025 10:33BuyUSD/JPY146.248145.24717h-$68.92
Apr 2, 2025 22:13BuyUSD/JPY149.243148.24112d-$67.59
Mar 19, 2025 14:01BuyUSD/JPY147.135150.1368d+$199.88
Mar 10, 2025 11:04BuyUSD/JPY147.869146.8633d-$68.50
Mar 7, 2025 14:29BuyUSD/JPY148.028147.02715h-$68.08
Mar 6, 2025 09:15BuyUSD/JPY148.817147.8152d-$67.79
Mar 4, 2025 11:37BuyUSD/JPY149.335148.3349d-$67.48
Feb 21, 2025 17:56BuyUSD/JPY150.235149.2341d-$67.08
Feb 20, 2025 00:55BuyUSD/JPY151.940150.9403d-$66.25
Feb 17, 2025 00:55BuyUSD/JPY152.808151.8073d-$65.94
Feb 12, 2025 15:01BuyUSD/JPY151.524154.5243d+$194.14
Feb 6, 2025 18:19BuyUSD/JPY152.643151.64021h-$66.14
Feb 5, 2025 15:31BuyUSD/JPY153.137152.1371h-$65.73
Feb 5, 2025 01:06BuyUSD/JPY154.590153.5908d-$65.11
Jan 27, 2025 10:01BuyUSD/JPY155.430154.42810d-$64.88
Jan 16, 2025 16:40BuyUSD/JPY156.122155.12210h-$64.47
Jan 16, 2025 01:47BuyUSD/JPY156.594155.59124d-$64.46
Dec 20, 2024 02:51BuyUSD/JPY157.880156.8803h-$63.74
Dec 19, 2024 06:36BuyUSD/JPY152.484155.4858d+$192.99
Dec 11, 2024 09:22BuyUSD/JPY149.213152.2158d+$197.21
Dec 2, 2024 16:25BuyUSD/JPY150.165149.1643d-$67.11
Nov 29, 2024 00:33BuyUSD/JPY151.738150.73717h-$66.41
Nov 27, 2024 01:38BuyUSD/JPY153.652152.6469h-$65.90
Nov 26, 2024 13:03BuyUSD/JPY154.055153.0487d-$65.80
Nov 19, 2024 08:37BuyUSD/JPY154.832153.8326d-$65.01
Nov 13, 2024 00:59BuyUSD/JPY151.928154.92919d+$193.70
Oct 24, 2024 11:03BuyUSD/JPY152.799151.79913h-$65.88
Oct 23, 2024 09:37BuyUSD/JPY149.733152.7358d+$196.54
Oct 14, 2024 14:08BuyUSD/JPY146.914149.91711d+$200.31
Oct 2, 2024 12:57BuyUSD/JPY142.419145.4202d+$206.36
Sep 30, 2024 05:47BuyUSD/JPY142.683141.6837h-$70.58
Sep 27, 2024 05:19BuyUSD/JPY143.377146.3772d+$204.94
Sep 24, 2024 20:27BuyUSD/JPY144.115143.1152d-$69.87
Sep 20, 2024 03:07BuyUSD/JPY142.966141.96217h-$70.72
Sep 19, 2024 00:40BuyUSD/JPY140.210143.2113d+$209.55
Sep 16, 2024 06:43BuyUSD/JPY140.937139.9353d-$71.60
Sep 13, 2024 08:12BuyUSD/JPY141.559140.5572d-$71.29
Sep 11, 2024 01:32BuyUSD/JPY142.999141.9991d-$70.42
Sep 6, 2024 15:00BuyUSD/JPY142.860141.8605h-$70.49
Sep 6, 2024 05:13BuyUSD/JPY143.678142.6781d-$70.09
Sep 4, 2024 14:38BuyUSD/JPY145.025144.0233h-$69.57
Sep 4, 2024 07:02BuyUSD/JPY145.795144.79514h-$69.06
Sep 3, 2024 14:00BuyUSD/JPY146.180145.1162h-$73.32
Sep 2, 2024 13:28BuyUSD/JPY144.044147.0457d+$204.08
Aug 23, 2024 17:34BuyUSD/JPY145.513144.5131d-$69.20
Aug 20, 2024 20:23BuyUSD/JPY146.276145.2761d-$68.83
Aug 19, 2024 04:39BuyUSD/JPY146.890145.8905d-$68.54
Aug 12, 2024 13:32BuyUSD/JPY145.198148.1986d+$202.43
Aug 6, 2024 20:57BuyUSD/JPY145.248144.1705h-$74.77
Aug 6, 2024 08:18BuyUSD/JPY145.656144.6345h-$70.66
Aug 6, 2024 00:10BuyUSD/JPY143.094146.13210h+$207.84
Aug 2, 2024 12:30BuyUSD/JPY149.394148.3701d-$69.02
Jul 30, 2024 20:52BuyUSD/JPY153.786152.7725d-$66.37
Jul 25, 2024 00:32BuyUSD/JPY154.027153.0266h-$65.41
Jul 24, 2024 01:12BuyUSD/JPY156.259155.2596d-$64.41
Jul 17, 2024 23:38BuyUSD/JPY156.489155.4887h-$64.38
Jul 17, 2024 08:04BuyUSD/JPY157.840156.8364d-$64.02
Jul 12, 2024 13:08BuyUSD/JPY159.265158.2636h-$63.31
Jul 11, 2024 23:29BuyUSD/JPY158.755157.7554h-$63.39
Jul 11, 2024 13:03BuyUSD/JPY159.008158.00020d-$63.80
Jun 20, 2024 16:47BuyUSD/JPY155.847158.84914d+$188.98
Jun 3, 2024 15:56BuyUSD/JPY156.953155.95011d-$64.32
May 23, 2024 14:11BuyUSD/JPY154.150157.1507d+$190.90
May 15, 2024 22:07BuyUSD/JPY155.680154.6776d-$64.84
May 9, 2024 09:26BuyUSD/JPY152.896155.8976d+$192.49
May 3, 2024 12:30BuyUSD/JPY153.455152.44214h-$66.45
May 2, 2024 11:22BuyUSD/JPY155.936154.92811h-$65.06
May 1, 2024 20:27BuyUSD/JPY156.258155.1882d-$68.95
Apr 29, 2024 16:46BuyUSD/JPY156.236155.2345h-$64.55
Apr 26, 2024 14:55BuyUSD/JPY154.306157.30811d+$190.83
Apr 15, 2024 12:30BuyUSD/JPY151.228154.22926d+$194.55
Mar 19, 2024 05:07BuyUSD/JPY147.178150.18911d+$200.48
Mar 8, 2024 09:48BuyUSD/JPY147.889146.8881h-$68.15
Mar 7, 2024 06:34BuyUSD/JPY149.355148.35427d-$67.47
Feb 8, 2024 13:36BuyUSD/JPY146.421149.4307d+$201.36
Feb 1, 2024 16:45BuyUSD/JPY146.910145.90710h-$68.74
Jan 31, 2024 15:48BuyUSD/JPY147.340146.34014d-$68.33
Jan 16, 2024 16:00BuyUSD/JPY143.922146.9327d+$204.85
Jan 9, 2024 01:43BuyUSD/JPY144.637143.6144d-$71.23
Jan 4, 2024 10:42BuyUSD/JPY141.127144.1277d+$208.14
Dec 28, 2023 07:03BuyUSD/JPY142.017141.01314d-$71.20
Dec 13, 2023 19:44BuyUSD/JPY144.001142.9996d-$70.07
Dec 8, 2023 01:08BuyUSD/JPY143.500142.5005h-$70.18
Dec 7, 2023 07:44BuyUSD/JPY146.568145.5583d-$69.39
Dec 3, 2023 23:01BuyUSD/JPY147.586146.58613d-$68.22
Nov 21, 2023 01:01BuyUSD/JPY149.047148.04548d-$67.68
Oct 3, 2023 14:12BuyUSD/JPY148.904147.7807d-$76.06
Sep 26, 2023 06:38BuyUSD/JPY146.146149.14722d+$201.20
Sep 1, 2023 12:50BuyUSD/JPY145.488144.48718d-$69.28
Aug 14, 2023 12:26BuyUSD/JPY142.272145.27214d+$206.50
Jul 31, 2023 08:22BuyUSD/JPY139.330142.3333d+$210.98
Jul 28, 2023 03:28BuyUSD/JPY139.578138.5761h-$72.31
Jul 27, 2023 19:22BuyUSD/JPY140.148139.14714h-$71.94
Jul 27, 2023 02:10BuyUSD/JPY140.466139.4643h-$71.85
Jul 26, 2023 06:30BuyUSD/JPY141.631140.6305d-$71.18
Jul 21, 2023 07:34BuyUSD/JPY137.875140.8787d+$213.15
Jul 14, 2023 01:35BuyUSD/JPY138.454137.4521d-$72.90
Jul 12, 2023 00:15BuyUSD/JPY140.895139.89511h-$71.48
Jul 7, 2023 08:27BuyUSD/JPY144.115143.11522h-$69.87
Jul 6, 2023 05:59BuyUSD/JPY144.686143.6866d-$69.60
Jun 30, 2023 01:11BuyUSD/JPY141.928144.93111d+$207.19
Jun 16, 2023 15:42BuyUSD/JPY138.803141.80915d+$211.97
Jun 1, 2023 14:00BuyUSD/JPY139.786138.5992d-$85.64
May 30, 2023 11:42BuyUSD/JPY140.742139.7412d-$71.63
May 26, 2023 15:00BuyUSD/JPY137.529140.5298d+$213.47
May 17, 2023 12:39BuyUSD/JPY134.184137.18413d+$218.68
May 4, 2023 16:12BuyUSD/JPY134.518133.51412h-$75.20
May 3, 2023 07:00BuyUSD/JPY136.813135.8122d-$73.70
May 1, 2023 02:28BuyUSD/JPY133.818136.8184d+$219.26
Apr 26, 2023 14:23BuyUSD/JPY134.065133.0649d-$75.23
Apr 17, 2023 01:15BuyUSD/JPY131.094134.10311d+$224.37
Apr 5, 2023 14:00BuyUSD/JPY131.755130.72816h-$78.56
Apr 3, 2023 06:10BuyUSD/JPY130.595133.60311d+$225.14
Mar 23, 2023 03:16BuyUSD/JPY131.535130.5333d-$76.76
Mar 20, 2023 06:49BuyUSD/JPY132.212131.2128h-$76.21
Mar 16, 2023 13:21BuyUSD/JPY132.983131.9743d-$76.45
Mar 13, 2023 09:30BuyUSD/JPY134.419133.4169h-$75.18
Mar 10, 2023 14:37BuyUSD/JPY135.975134.9755d-$74.09
Mar 3, 2023 13:43BuyUSD/JPY136.947135.94420h-$73.78
Mar 2, 2023 13:30BuyUSD/JPY133.928136.93214d+$219.36
Feb 15, 2023 13:30BuyUSD/JPY130.898133.9375d+$226.88
Feb 10, 2023 08:01BuyUSD/JPY131.223130.2222d-$76.87
Feb 7, 2023 17:46BuyUSD/JPY131.882130.8801d-$76.56
Feb 5, 2023 22:00BuyUSD/JPY128.272132.47118d+$316.91
Jan 19, 2023 05:35BuyUSD/JPY128.794127.79412h-$78.25
Jan 18, 2023 03:30BuyUSD/JPY128.100131.1082d+$229.42
Jan 13, 2023 15:47BuyUSD/JPY128.538127.5233h-$79.59
Jan 13, 2023 08:12BuyUSD/JPY129.180128.1718h-$78.72
Jan 12, 2023 12:02BuyUSD/JPY131.799130.7993d-$76.45
Jan 6, 2023 15:53BuyUSD/JPY133.438132.43717h-$75.58
Jan 5, 2023 13:15BuyUSD/JPY130.115133.1152d+$225.33
Jan 3, 2023 01:29BuyUSD/JPY130.934129.93421h-$76.96
Jan 1, 2023 22:08BuyUSD/JPY131.760130.75912d-$76.55
Dec 20, 2022 16:11BuyUSD/JPY132.202131.2012h-$76.30
Dec 20, 2022 03:04BuyUSD/JPY136.151135.13922h-$74.89
Dec 16, 2022 18:39BuyUSD/JPY137.329136.32811h-$73.43
Dec 15, 2022 17:05BuyUSD/JPY134.939137.9391d+$217.48
Dec 14, 2022 10:00BuyUSD/JPY135.538134.53414h-$74.63
Dec 13, 2022 13:30BuyUSD/JPY136.468135.4686d-$73.82
Dec 7, 2022 06:26BuyUSD/JPY134.699137.7112d+$218.70
Dec 2, 2022 16:46BuyUSD/JPY135.891134.8913h-$74.13
Dec 1, 2022 17:31BuyUSD/JPY136.338135.3378h-$73.96
Nov 30, 2022 23:43BuyUSD/JPY138.392137.3296d-$77.41
Nov 23, 2022 14:45BuyUSD/JPY141.581140.5745h-$71.63
Nov 23, 2022 00:03BuyUSD/JPY142.005141.00517h-$70.92
Nov 21, 2022 17:20BuyUSD/JPY139.234142.2356d+$210.98
Nov 15, 2022 13:32BuyUSD/JPY139.536138.5271d-$72.84
Nov 11, 2022 08:56BuyUSD/JPY141.651140.6509h-$71.17
Nov 10, 2022 13:30BuyUSD/JPY145.955144.92814d-$70.86
Oct 27, 2022 05:37BuyUSD/JPY146.139145.1392h-$68.90
Oct 26, 2022 08:06BuyUSD/JPY147.932146.93012h-$68.20
Oct 25, 2022 13:48BuyUSD/JPY148.836147.8351d-$67.71
Oct 21, 2022 14:53BuyUSD/JPY150.203149.19115h-$67.83
Oct 20, 2022 18:21BuyUSD/JPY147.227150.2317d+$199.96
Oct 13, 2022 12:30BuyUSD/JPY144.153147.1589d+$204.19
Oct 4, 2022 16:29BuyUSD/JPY145.083144.0831d-$69.40
Oct 3, 2022 04:05BuyUSD/JPY142.282145.29010d+$207.02
Sep 22, 2022 02:55BuyUSD/JPY142.319145.33613d+$207.58
Sep 9, 2022 04:14BuyUSD/JPY143.590142.5902d-$70.13
Sep 6, 2022 22:51BuyUSD/JPY140.175143.2005d+$211.24
Sep 1, 2022 14:00BuyUSD/JPY136.823139.8299d+$214.97
Aug 23, 2022 14:11BuyUSD/JPY136.936135.9322d-$73.86
Aug 18, 2022 16:59BuyUSD/JPY132.594135.6057d+$222.04
Aug 11, 2022 12:30BuyUSD/JPY132.990131.99017h-$75.76
Aug 10, 2022 14:03BuyUSD/JPY133.272132.2677d-$75.98
Aug 3, 2022 00:21BuyUSD/JPY130.756133.77017h+$225.30
Aug 2, 2022 00:18BuyUSD/JPY132.061131.05011h-$77.15
Aug 1, 2022 01:11BuyUSD/JPY133.380132.3713d-$76.23
Jul 29, 2022 03:49BuyUSD/JPY134.308133.3075h-$75.09
Jul 28, 2022 12:43BuyUSD/JPY135.999134.9956d-$74.37
Jul 22, 2022 13:29BuyUSD/JPY137.508136.50611h-$73.40
Jul 21, 2022 20:55BuyUSD/JPY138.319137.3194d-$72.82
Jul 18, 2022 00:56BuyUSD/JPY139.232138.2323d-$72.34
Jul 14, 2022 04:45BuyUSD/JPY135.221138.22224d+$217.11
Jun 17, 2022 14:54BuyUSD/JPY132.276135.27617h+$221.76
Jun 16, 2022 08:57BuyUSD/JPY134.179133.1788d-$75.16
Jun 8, 2022 00:59BuyUSD/JPY130.054133.0586d+$225.76
Jun 1, 2022 14:22BuyUSD/JPY126.893129.8958d+$231.10
May 24, 2022 13:46BuyUSD/JPY127.585126.5845d-$79.08
May 19, 2022 12:39BuyUSD/JPY128.272127.2717d-$78.65
May 12, 2022 12:53BuyUSD/JPY129.047128.0477d-$78.10
May 4, 2022 18:54BuyUSD/JPY130.054129.0543d-$77.49
Apr 29, 2022 14:55BuyUSD/JPY130.647129.64611h-$77.21
Apr 28, 2022 06:55BuyUSD/JPY127.448130.4482d+$229.97
Apr 26, 2022 13:43BuyUSD/JPY128.082127.0789h-$79.01
Apr 26, 2022 00:27BuyUSD/JPY128.408127.4076d-$78.57
Apr 19, 2022 08:44BuyUSD/JPY125.441128.4458d+$233.87
Apr 11, 2022 01:30BuyUSD/JPY121.723124.72312d+$240.52
Mar 30, 2022 02:31BuyUSD/JPY122.903121.8818h-$83.85
Mar 29, 2022 12:40BuyUSD/JPY123.766122.76117h-$81.87
Mar 28, 2022 07:15BuyUSD/JPY120.695123.6956d+$242.53
Mar 22, 2022 00:48BuyUSD/JPY116.995119.99810d+$250.24
Mar 11, 2022 04:14BuyUSD/JPY113.483116.483149d+$257.54
Oct 11, 2021 02:40BuyUSD/JPY109.489112.49267d+$266.95
Aug 4, 2021 12:18BuyUSD/JPY109.797108.79727d-$91.91
Jul 8, 2021 07:18BuyUSD/JPY110.994109.98615d-$91.65
Jun 23, 2021 10:03BuyUSD/JPY108.000111.010110d+$271.14
Mar 4, 2021 15:53BuyUSD/JPY104.647107.64722d+$278.68
Feb 10, 2021 08:35BuyUSD/JPY105.468104.4682d-$95.72
Feb 5, 2021 13:03BuyUSD/JPY102.728105.72831d+$283.74
Jan 5, 2021 16:37BuyUSD/JPY103.689102.68861d-$97.48
Nov 5, 2020 20:03BuyUSD/JPY104.455103.45498d-$96.76
Jul 31, 2020 01:43BuyUSD/JPY105.322104.3223d-$95.86
Jul 27, 2020 03:15BuyUSD/JPY106.473105.46833d-$95.29
Jun 23, 2020 13:20BuyUSD/JPY107.312106.30613d-$94.63
Jun 10, 2020 06:31BuyUSD/JPY108.386107.3861d-$93.12
Jun 8, 2020 14:37BuyUSD/JPY109.462108.4568h-$92.76
Jun 5, 2020 14:11BuyUSD/JPY106.847109.84938d+$273.28
Apr 28, 2020 11:16BuyUSD/JPY107.602106.60129d-$93.90
Mar 27, 2020 15:48BuyUSD/JPY108.916107.9108d-$93.23
Mar 19, 2020 02:11BuyUSD/JPY106.194109.1962d+$274.91
Mar 16, 2020 06:16BuyUSD/JPY107.209106.2094h-$94.15
Mar 13, 2020 11:43BuyUSD/JPY103.723106.7281d+$281.55
Mar 12, 2020 01:15BuyUSD/JPY105.024104.01817h-$96.71
Mar 10, 2020 19:13BuyUSD/JPY102.512105.5131d+$284.41
Mar 9, 2020 13:37BuyUSD/JPY102.521101.5194h-$98.70
Mar 8, 2020 21:05BuyUSD/JPY105.861104.3083d-$148.89
Mar 5, 2020 16:43BuyUSD/JPY107.569106.5691d-$93.84
Mar 3, 2020 19:06BuyUSD/JPY107.974106.9602d-$94.80
Feb 27, 2020 15:32BuyUSD/JPY110.730109.7303d-$91.13
Feb 24, 2020 14:10BuyUSD/JPY112.074111.0694d-$90.48
Feb 20, 2020 10:30BuyUSD/JPY109.050112.05024d+$267.74
Jan 26, 2020 22:00BuyUSD/JPY110.063108.91613d-$105.31
Jan 14, 2020 00:11BuyUSD/JPY107.092110.092111d+$272.49
Sep 24, 2019 16:40BuyUSD/JPY108.116107.11611d-$93.36
Sep 13, 2019 00:59BuyUSD/JPY105.232108.23218d+$277.17
Aug 25, 2019 21:05BuyUSD/JPY105.952104.94220d-$96.24
Aug 5, 2019 01:21BuyUSD/JPY107.039106.03941d-$94.30
Jun 25, 2019 03:54BuyUSD/JPY107.947106.94721d-$93.50
May 31, 2019 20:54BuyUSD/JPY109.297108.29618d-$92.43
May 13, 2019 12:54BuyUSD/JPY110.095109.09350d-$91.85
Mar 22, 2019 13:53BuyUSD/JPY111.039110.03936d-$90.88
Feb 13, 2019 08:08BuyUSD/JPY107.722110.72241d+$270.95

Monthly Returns

-$66-$4+$185-$188+$125Apr 2026MayJunJulAug

Calculated from market data released after the strategy lock date.

Year by Year

Jan 1, 2019 – Sep 1, 2026

YearTradesNet P/LWin rate
202620+$489.3835%
202559+$28.7225%
202463+$1077.4732%
202353+$828.6430%
202260+$1785.7135%
20218+$723.7550%
202023-$15.1826%
20199-$104.4422%

Drawdown

0.0%-1.8%Apr 1, 2026May 18, 2026Aug 19, 2026

Calculated from market data released after the strategy lock date.(-1.8%)

Recent Trades

Apr 1, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026

ClosedDurationPipsP/L
Aug 19, 20261d-100-$63.02
Aug 18, 202615d300+$187.76
Jul 31, 202621h-100.2-$63.22
Jul 30, 202628d-100.2-$62.60
Jul 2, 20267d-100.2-$62.33
View all 11 trades
ClosedDurationPipsP/L
Jun 25, 202638d300.1+$185.31
May 18, 202612d300+$188.75
May 6, 20262d-100-$64.17
May 4, 20263d-100.6-$64.61
May 1, 202613h-100-$64.30
Apr 30, 202641d-103-$65.63

Verification

Strategy Version
v1.0
Locked date
Apr 1, 2026
Test period
Jan 1, 2019 – Apr 1, 2026
Forward period
Apr 1, 2026 – Sep 1, 2026
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
M15
Broker data source
Dukascopy real ticks in the MetaTrader 5 strategy tester, every tick based on real ticks (Model 4), 0.1 lot on a $10,000 balance
Modelling method
Daily out-of-sample re-run
Modelling quality
100%
Starting balance
$10,000
Position sizing
0.1 lot per $10,000
Spread guard
40 points
Re-runs Since Listing
9
Data through
Sep 1, 2026
Last re-run
Sep 8, 2026
File checksum
5e3ed6f0ac430df99dbc88eff4b6dbb8a39a81a785ecf952e64e52583fc613d3

Download full history (CSV, backtest)Download full tracking history (CSV)

Strategy logic

How Kestrel Hover Trades

A trend-following EA that opens a single long position when the Ichimoku Tenkan line crosses above the Kijun line on USD/JPY M15, then leaves it alone until a fixed stop or target is reached.

01 Market

When it trades

USD/JPY, Any Hour

There is no session filter and no time window. Every closed M15 bar is checked, around the clock, five days a week, so the EA behaves the same on any broker's server clock.

02 Setup

What it looks for

Tenkan Crosses Kijun

The Tenkan-sen (9) must close a bar below the Kijun-sen (26) and the next bar above it. Both lines are read one bar back, so the signal is only evaluated after the bar has closed and cannot repaint.

Only these two Ichimoku lines are used. The cloud is not part of the rule.

03 Entry

How it enters

One Buy, No Short

A single buy position opens at the ask on the bar after the cross. The shipped build has no short branch — it sits out downward crosses entirely.

04 Risk

How it protects

Fixed 100-Pip Stop

A 100-pip stop-loss is attached to the order when it is sent and is never moved, widened or removed. That is the whole of the risk control.

05 Exit

How it exits

Fixed 300-Pip Target

The position closes at a 300-pip take-profit or at the stop, whichever comes first. Nothing else closes it, which is why the average position is held for about six days.

Risk architecture

Position limit
One position
Position sizing
Fixed lot
Recovery method
None
No martingale, no grid, no averaging down.
Protective exit
Fixed stop-loss

Market behavior

Performs best in

  • Sustained upward trends, where a single 300-pip target is reached without a deep retracement first
  • Quiet, low-spread conditions — a spread above 40 points blocks the entry outright

Can struggle in

  • Range-bound markets, where Tenkan crosses Kijun repeatedly and each cross runs into the stop
  • Sharp downward moves, since the build takes no short trades and simply stays out

Published configuration

Parameters & Controls

The exact configuration used for testing and forward tracking.

ParameterPublished valueWhat it controls
Lot sizeLotSize0.1Position size per trade
Stop lossSL_Pips_o1100 pipsMaximum loss per trade
Take profitTP_Pips_o1300 pipsProfit target
Max positionsMaxPositions_g21Simultaneous exposure
Max spreadMaxSpread_g340 pointsSpread protection
One entry per barOncePerBartrueSignal frequency
Tenkan periodIchi_Tenkan_i19Fast Ichimoku line
Kijun periodIchi_Kijun_i126Slow Ichimoku line
Senkou periodIchi_Senkou_i152Ichimoku span setting
Tenkan period (duplicate)Ichi_Tenkan_i29Keep equal to Tenkan period
Kijun period (duplicate)Ichi_Kijun_i226Keep equal to Kijun period
Senkou period (duplicate)Ichi_Senkou_i252Keep equal to Senkou period
Locked for trackingUser-adjustableSelect “View full inputs” below for every parameter’s range and full description.
Download .setVersion — updated Sep 1, 2026

All published inputs

  • Lot sizeLotSize
    Default
    0.1
    Suggested range
    0.1 per $10,000 of balance

    Fixed lot per trade. The published record is 0.1 lot on a $10,000 balance; scaling both together keeps the drawdown percentage the same.

  • Stop lossSL_Pips_o1
    Default
    100 pips
    Suggested range
    —

    Hard stop-loss in pips, attached to the order when it is sent. It is never moved or widened while the position is open.

  • Take profitTP_Pips_o1
    Default
    300 pips
    Suggested range
    —

    Fixed take-profit in pips. The 300/100 pairing is what produces the 3:1 reward-to-risk shape, and it is why fewer than a third of the trades are winners.

  • Max positionsMaxPositions_g2
    Default
    1
    Suggested range
    —

    Cap on simultaneous positions. The published record was produced at 1, so a second position is never opened while one is running.

  • Max spreadMaxSpread_g3
    Default
    40 points
    Suggested range
    0-100

    A new entry is skipped when the spread, in points, is wider than this. It only blocks entries — an open position is never closed because of spread.

  • One entry per barOncePerBar
    Default
    true
    Suggested range
    —

    Restricts the EA to at most one entry per M15 bar, so a signal cannot fire repeatedly inside the same candle.

  • Tenkan periodIchi_Tenkan_i1
    Default
    9
    Suggested range
    —

    Period of the Tenkan-sen (conversion line). This is the fast line whose cross above the Kijun-sen is the entry signal.

  • Kijun periodIchi_Kijun_i1
    Default
    26
    Suggested range
    —

    Period of the Kijun-sen (base line). 9/26 is the standard Ichimoku pairing and is what the record was measured on.

  • Senkou periodIchi_Senkou_i1
    Default
    52
    Suggested range
    —

    Senkou span B period. The entry rule reads only the Tenkan and Kijun lines — the cloud is not part of it.

  • Tenkan period (duplicate)Ichi_Tenkan_i2
    Default
    9
    Suggested range
    —

    Duplicate of the Tenkan period. Keep it the same as Ichi_Tenkan_i1.

  • Kijun period (duplicate)Ichi_Kijun_i2
    Default
    26
    Suggested range
    —

    Duplicate of the Kijun period. Keep it the same as Ichi_Kijun_i1.

  • Senkou period (duplicate)Ichi_Senkou_i2
    Default
    52
    Suggested range
    —

    Duplicate of the Senkou period. Keep it the same as Ichi_Senkou_i1.

  • Magic numberMagicNumber
    Default
    267337
    Suggested range
    Any unique integer

    Identifies this EA's positions. Change it only to avoid a collision with another EA on the same account.

  • SlippageSlippage
    Default
    3
    Suggested range
    0-30

    Maximum price deviation accepted when the order is sent, in pips. Raising it makes fills more likely in fast markets and worse on average.

Running environment

Requirements & Compatibility

The platform, broker conditions, and account setup needed to run the published configuration.

RequirementSpecification
PlatformMetaTrader 5
ChartUSD/JPY · M15
Suggested starting capital$10,000 — the balance this published record was measured on
Recommended sizing0.1 lot per $10,000
Deepest measured equity drawdown8.1% of $10,000 — about $808
Leverage1:100 or higher
Account modeHedging or netting — the EA holds one position at a time. Run it where nothing else trades USD/JPY, since a foreign position on the same symbol can hide from its position count.
Account linkA broker IB account linked to mt5depot. The distributed build checks it on start-up and stays idle if the check fails; the check is skipped inside the strategy tester.
Server timeNot used — the EA has no session or time filter, so your broker's GMT offset does not change its behaviour.
Spread guard40 points — a new entry is skipped while the spread is wider. Open positions are unaffected.
WebRequestAllow https://mt5depot.com under Tools → Options → Expert Advisors.
VPSRecommended — every closed M15 bar is checked around the clock, five days a week.

Compatibility check

  • MetaTrader 5 account (the published build is MT5)
  • That account linked to mt5depot as an IB account, and approved
  • USD/JPY available in Market Watch
  • Algo Trading enabled, and WebRequest allowed
  • A single M15 USD/JPY chart
  • No other EA or manual trading on USD/JPY in the same account

Confirm every item before comparing your results with the published record.

Test environment

  • Dukascopy real ticks, MetaTrader 5 strategy tester, every tick based on real ticks (Model 4), history quality reported by the tester as 100%, 0.1 lot on a $10,000 balance at 1:100
  • Swap and commission were both zero in this run, so the published figures contain no carry cost. Positions are held about six days on average, so a live account's swap will move the result.
  • Jan 1, 2019 – Apr 1, 2026 · 284 closed trades
  • 0.1 lot per $10,000
Installation guideBroker setupLicence & terms

Installation

Start in three steps

Install Kestrel Hover on MetaTrader 5 using the published configuration.

  1. Download the files

    Get the EA file and the published preset used for testing and forward tracking.

    • .ex5
    • .set
    • .pdf
    • Preset included

  2. Attach it to the correct chart

    Open USD/JPY on M15 in MetaTrader 5, then attach Kestrel Hover to a single chart.

    • USD/JPY
    • M15
    • One chart only

  3. Load the published settings

    Import the preset and keep the tracked configuration unchanged.

    • Load .set
    • WebRequest

Before you run

  • MetaTrader 5 installed
  • USD/JPY available in Market Watch
  • M15 chart selected
  • Algo Trading enabled
  • https://mt5depot.com allowed for WebRequest
  • Published defaults preserved

Matching these conditions helps reproduce the published record.

Included files

  • EA file kestrel-hover.ex5 The compiled, licensed Expert Advisor.
  • Preset kestrel-hover.set The shipped input values — load it in the Inputs tab before running.
  • Manual mt5depot-ea-manual-en.pdf Installation instructions, the same document for every EA.

Use the preset first before making any custom changes.

Installation notes

  • Attach one instance only. The published record is one position at a time.
Published configuration Download files Broker time setup

Measurement conditions

How this record was measured

All brokers →
Spread
Floating
Spread guard
New entries are skipped while the spread is wider than 40 points
Order execution
The strategy tester fills at the requested price: slippage, requotes and rejected orders are not simulated. Execution on a live account will move the result.
Tester report
Open the original report — the file MetaTrader 5 wrote at the end of the run (English only)

The shipped build only checks that the trading account is linked to mt5depot as an IB account. Any of these brokers works:

Frequently asked questions

Is Kestrel Hover a martingale or grid EA?
No. It opens one position at a time with a fixed lot, a fixed 100-pip stop and a fixed 300-pip target. There is no averaging down, no grid, no recovery trade and no lot progression of any kind.
How was it tested?
On Dukascopy real ticks for USD/JPY, loaded into MetaTrader 5 as a custom symbol and run in the strategy tester on the "every tick based on real ticks" model, from 2019-01-01 to 2026-07-01 with 0.1 lot on a $10,000 balance. The tester reported the history quality of that run as 100%. The published backtest is the part of that run that ends at the 2026-04-01 cutoff; what the same build did after that date is shown separately as the verification window, so the two never share a trade. Every closed trade is published on this page and downloadable as CSV.
Does the backtest include swap?
No. Swap and commission were both zero in the test run, so the published figures contain no carry cost or credit. Positions are held for about six days on average, so your broker's swap on a long USD/JPY position will change the result in either direction.
Why does it only buy?
The shipped build evaluates the downward cross but never acts on it, so it is long-only by construction. In a sustained downtrend it stays flat rather than reversing.
Does it trade at particular hours?
No. There is no time or session filter, so it does not need your broker's GMT offset and behaves the same regardless of where the broker's server clock sits.
What happens when the spread widens?
A new entry is skipped whenever the spread is wider than 40 points. An open position is never closed because of spread, so a widening spread can only stop it entering, not force it out.

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Key terms

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