Trend EUR/USD Conservative
Balanced Portfolio V1
- 12M return
- +14.2%
- Max DD
- -6.1%
- Sharpe
- 2.04
News Filter Trend V1
EMA-crossover trend EA for USD/JPY with a built-in news blackout filter. Automatically pauses 2 hours before and after high-impact events — eliminating the most common source of outsized losses in trend EAs. Moderate risk.
Key risk metrics
The numbers a serious trader looks at first.
- Max drawdown
- -8.3%
- Worst streak
- -9.7%
- Recovery time
- 26d
Worst peak-to-trough in 2020–2025 backtest.
5 consecutive losing trades, single cluster.
Time from drawdown trough to new equity high.
Performance
Returns are presented in context, not in isolation.
- 12M return
- +19.8%
- 5Y CAGR
- +17.9%
- Sharpe
- 1.78
- Win rate
- 60.1%
- Trades / month
- 14
- Sortino
- 2.54
Backtest equity curve
2020–2025, XM real spread tick data, modelling quality 99%
Equity curve from 2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31 on the primary pair (USD/JPY). Modelling quality 99%. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Annual returns
Year by year
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +15.3% | +19.6% | +14.8% | +18.1% | +19.8% | +21.2% |
How it works
News Filter Trend V1 is a standard EMA-crossover trend follower with one addition that separates it from most trend EAs: a news blackout filter that automatically pauses new trade entries in the hours surrounding high-impact economic releases.
Entry logic: when the 8-period EMA crosses above the 21-period EMA on H4, and price is already above both EMAs, the EA enters long at the next bar open. Short logic is the mirror image. Stop-loss is set at 2.0 x ATR below entry. A trailing stop activates immediately at 15 pips increments.
The news filter checks the MetaTrader 4/5 economic calendar for high-impact events affecting the traded pair. If an event is within the configured blackout window, no new entries fire regardless of EMA signals.
Why news events destroy trend EAs
EMA-crossover strategies are particularly vulnerable to high-impact news because:
- The EMA signal is based on pre-news price momentum, which is frequently reversed by the actual release.
- Spreads widen by 3–10x during major releases, adding slippage cost at exactly the wrong moment.
- Post-release volatility can trigger the trailing stop during the initial spike before the genuine trend resumes.
The 2-hour pre-event blackout prevents entering a trade that is immediately invalidated by the news. The 2-hour post-event window prevents entering into the erratic post-release oscillation.
Risk profile
- Max drawdown -8.3%, with the deepest single drawdown (-7.4%) occurring in January 2023 when USD/JPY reversed sharply after Bank of Japan policy announcements.
- The news filter specifically reduced the BOJ-related drawdown — without it, backtests show a -13.1% drawdown for the same period.
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD supplementary pairs run on the same logic with independent position sizing; they contribute ~35% of total trades.
Recommended deployment
- $2,000 minimum for the H4 swing holding period (typically 3–15 days per trade).
- HFM slightly preferred for USD/JPY spread; XM is a close second and has marginally better execution during Tokyo session hours.
- The news filter requires the EA to connect to the broker data feed during market hours for calendar updates. VPS with reliable connectivity is recommended.
What the EA does NOT do
- It does not trade during blackout windows under any circumstance — a strong EMA signal immediately before a major release will be skipped, not entered.
- It does not close existing positions at news time (the filter blocks new entries only; open trades ride through events with their stops in place).
- It does not use martingale position sizing or averaging.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the "news filter" actually do?
- It suspends new entries around scheduled high-impact releases — NFP, CPI, BoJ and Fed decisions — so the EA does not open into the spread-widening and slippage that spike around those events. Positions already open are still managed normally.
- Why USD/JPY?
- USD/JPY trends cleanly on the H4 timeframe and is highly sensitive to rate-and-policy news, which is exactly what the filter is designed to sidestep. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are supported as secondary pairs.
- How risky is it?
- Moderate. The backtest shows a -8.3% max drawdown, a -9.7% worst streak and up to five consecutive losses, recovering in 26 days. A $2,000 account at 0.01 lots with 1:30 leverage is the baseline setup.
Parameters
Configurable inputs
| Name | Default | Suggested range | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsBlockHours | 2 | 1–4 | Hours before and after a high-impact news release during which the EA will not open new positions. Two hours each side is the calibrated minimum; tighten with caution. |
| EMAPeriodFast | 8 | 5–13 | Fast EMA period for the trend filter. When price is above the fast EMA and the fast EMA is above the slow EMA, only long entries are permitted. |
| EMAPeriodSlow | 21 | 13–34 | Slow EMA period for the trend filter. The fast/slow EMA cross is the primary trend entry signal. |
| ATRStopMultiplier | 2.0 | 1.5–3.0 | Stop-loss set at entry price minus (ATR x multiplier). Wider stops reduce stop-outs in noisy conditions but increase per-trade risk. |
| TrailingStepPips | 15 | 10–30 | Trailing stop advances by this pip increment each time price moves favorably. The trailing stop only moves forward, never backward. |
Broker compatibility
Verified spreads + execution
| Broker | Typical spread (pips) | Min lot | Execution | Verified | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XM | 1.4 | 0.01 | market | ✓ verified | Open account → |
| HFM | 1.2 | 0.01 | market | ✓ verified | Open account → |
Spreads observed on Standard account types during London + New York session overlap, averaged across the most recent 30 trading days.
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